Hello, thanks for stopping in. I am a long-time architect who did public projects in Kansas City, sold my business, and got a couple of graduate degrees to teach, research and write about the future of cities. My focus is: how do we live and work in a way that enriches our lives and those of future generations?
I am working on a book about how social networking and mobile tech esp how virtual, augmented reality are changing the way we use cities and eventually how we design and build things. You'll find stories and ideas about architecture futures, social change (a course I teach at U of Houston Futures Studies program), design, sustainability, communication, nano, neuro, books, education, publics - am enormously curious about people and planet topics.
Please share your point of view; I look forward to our conversation. You can find me on twitter http://twitter.com/urbanverse; check delicious too: http://delicious.com/cindyfw
Thanks Andy Marshall @fotofacade, for this extraordinary stair photo! inspiring. Find more here. http://fotofacade.com/?p=2646
I am focused on a deadline this week, and will return for more 21st Century Cities with a couple of significant issues - slums and tribes - two different, related ideas.
These images complement my last article: How Technology Will Shape 21st Century Cities: Geo-Engineering, which was a bit skimpy on pics, heavy on narrative. http://bit.ly/43oNLs Here are four more illustrations. One diagrams options, two rank them in cost-benefit analyses, and one does both.
The one that both diagrams and analyzes: New Scientist gave the most comprehensive version with a 3D image of options with rankings. http://bit.ly/13zjI7 Space mirrors (or reflectors, shields) rank highest overall and most expensive. Aerosols, cloud seeding and afforesting are shown as good options for less cost.
A cost-benefit analysis comes from the impressive report by The Royal Society. Aerosols come out best and surface albedo (light, reflective surfaces) either in cities or on the desert rank worst. Space reflectors or shields also rank high in efficacy but are not affordable. http://bit.ly/4jAytC (I featured this one in a September post http://bit.ly/35GuU9.) Here’s the full report: http://bit.ly/37pFFp
Check out my delicious bookmarks on geo-engineering too. http://delicious.com/CindyFW/geoengineering
Comments [0]
In October, I covered a list of 20 items from The Futurist magazine’s Outlook 2010 (Nov-Dec 09 issue http://bit.ly/xFR5C) that will shape 21st c cities. http://bit.ly/154x84 Now I am adding other trends, ideas, and forecasts beyond their list. I addressed megacities, water, robotics, and whole cities in the first four. http://bit.ly/2CZkcS http://bit.ly/4Cmu32 http://bit.ly/1TGe4T http://bit.ly/47hhNH This article considers a significant new technology: geoengineering.
Science Fiction or Global Mandate?
While climate change and global warming remain controversial, arguments about solutions elevate tensions exponentially. One option under consideration, geoengineering or intentional climate manipulation, makes scientists and engineers sound like science fiction fanatics. http://bit.ly/1Sok5B Simulated volcanoes? Ocean algae? Flying mirrors? Consequently, people arrive at the negotiating table in polar-opposite camps, lines in the sand, as either evangelists or naysayers. http://bit.ly/K0uz7
Yet undeniably, we have been practicing geoengineering unintentionally at least since the birth of industrialization. http://bit.ly/2Hpq1S http://bit.ly/1pfZ4A Now we are faced with engineering the planet’s climate intentionally and cooperatively. As Stewart Brand, environmental pioneer, says: We are as gods; we might as well get good at it. Moreover, we have to get good at it. http://bit.ly/7ZcQ3
We, Not Us Versus Them
Among the most vexing issues is coordination among nations. On geoengineering, we act for the whole planet and everyone is a participant. Already people and nations commonly practice local weather experiments. Last year, China openly seeded clouds to reduce the chance that the Olympics would be interrupted by rain. http://bit.ly/3dphXY
None have attempted to implement climate change on a global scale, yet the commotion surrounding options grows daily, which makes action increasingly likely. This week, the US Congress held hearings and undoubtedly similar talks are taking place in every country. In just a few months, geoengineering has moved from a sci-fi fantasy to a necessary global conversation.
Where Does Geoengineering Fit?
Geoengineering necessarily begins with a slate of options surrounding climate change to figure out if we can avoid it all together. Possible solutions focus on three types of intervention, according to Jamais Cascio. http://bit.ly/1jFCvi We can prevent, mitigate damage, and remediate or reverse global warming.
Prevention is the rallying cry for most environmentalists, me included. Building owners, government agencies, the public and AEC professionals increasingly mandate sustainable development. Regardless of remediation, prevention is an entry point for long-term stability, good design, and healthy lifestyles.
Are We Ready?
Hurricane Katrina and the 2008 Indonesian tsunami indicate that most if not all countries have enormous mitigation problems. The massive costs of preemptive change are dwarfed by the images of these destructive events and the loss of life. Yet investing in huge infrastructure projects for future possibilities falls far behind the needs of today’s crises. The question is: how many people and cities are we willing to sacrifice? Close to home most would say, none at all.
Consequently, while geoengineered remediation initially strikes many people as “you have got to be kidding me” and then as, “no way we can control the side-effects,” the fact is that we – or someone – will attempt massive geo-engineering climate change. We need to be experts for protection and most likely for proaction. That essentially is the debate. And it’s a debate that is past due.
Geoengineering Options
The types of geoengineering approaches fall into two categories, according to The Royal Society. http://bit.ly/37pFFp
Stratospheric aerosols (such as simulated volcanoes or aerosols released from airplanes) are the best investment although it requires continual implementation while urban surface albedo (light colored cities, deserts) is the least effective. In general, CDR/long wave is considerably less effective at quickly altering temperatures than SRM, although has better efficacy over time. (Lenton & Vaughn 2009) http://bit.ly/14wsNZ
What Will It Mean to Us?
In terms of the built environment, lighter, more reflective surfaces are part of sustainable design, both LEED and BREEAM. Over time, cities should become lighter and greener with less solid, dark surfaces. Some geoengineering solutions may be built into the fabric of the city and highly visible, such as one proposal to create reflective artificial trees along roadways. If that option became as prolific as say power lines, our urban landscapes would be substantially altered.
Environmental changes would also affect us. Dimming sunlight could have massive implications for our experience of place and the effect on plant life. Aerosols will lighten the sky, change sunrises and sunsets, and could damage the ozone layer. Changing deserts or fertilizing oceans could be a difficult if not disastrous ecological option. Reforestation reduces farm land, which affects food production and livelihoods. Yet these options warrant full consideration including open debates about possible consequences.
In addition, unintended consequences could include increased humidity, drought, and possible health implications of various aerosols. All of these risks are potential, not pre-determined.
I considered the ethics of geoengineering and outlined ideas in these posts: http://bit.ly/35GuU9 http://bit.ly/1HIIiw We need to continue with prevention and mitigation full-speed while we fully weigh geo-engineering.
How Do We Choose?
The difficulties of agreeing on the best options, determining risks, and measuring the impact, especially given the 20-30 year time lag for climate change, makes geoengineering thorny. Moreover, the mandate of “do no harm” and allowing reversibility increases our struggle 1000-fold. Implications must be considered in systematic terms, the potential consequences are enormous, and frankly, we still won’t be completely certain.
According to Lenton and Vaughn, our choices depend on how quickly and drastically we act.
By 2050, only stratospheric aerosol injections or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state, but some land carbon cycle geoengineering options are of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges". Strong mitigation, i.e. large reductions in CO2 emissions, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, deforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geo-engineering. http://bit.ly/14wsNZ
A future of a healthy atmosphere will only occur through a combination of changes to behavior, building and city choices, mitigating possible damage, recovery after catastrophes, and, yes, large-scale global engineering solutions – intentional, beneficial, accidental, and sadly, even malicious.
Looking Ahead
In fact, it is possible that only a few of these geo-engineering options will be necessary. Furthermore, the entire budget may be less than $10 billion, a relatively small global investment. The questions are: which options, who pays, who is liable for failures, and the extraordinarily sticky issue of who controls the projects. Furthermore, the risk of geoengineered terrorism is quite likely.
In other words, geoengineering will be part of everyday life and responsibility will fall on every country and individual, just as other security and environmental issues do today. New fields will emerge in geo-engineering, science, business, military, geo-ethics, and if there is to be solutions at all, in global diplomatic security and negotiations.
In the next article, I'll look at more technological influences on 21st century cities. The goal here is 10 additional city-shaping ideas, and this is the fifth in the series. Thanks for reading and retweeting. Questions, comments, and ideas welcome!
image: http://pesd.stanford.edu/news/science_progress_geoengineering/#
Comments [0]
Last week, I covered a list of 20 items from The Futurist magazine’s Outlook 2010 (Nov-Dec 09 issue http://bit.ly/xFR5C) that will shape 21st c cities. http://bit.ly/154x84 Now I am adding other trends, ideas, and forecasts beyond their list. I addressed megacities, water, and robotics in the first three. http://bit.ly/2CZkcS http://bit.ly/4Cmu32 http://bit.ly/1TGe4T This article considers the city as a whole system.
The Whole City
We see the modern, industrial city in parts. One segment is for houses, another for industrial, and entirely other areas for shops and offices. Consequently, we drive or take public transit from place to place. In the mid 21st century city, we will use and create whole cities and buildings differently than we did industrial cities.
Several forces are causing cities to change shape. First of all, commutes in cars are expensive, dangerous, and time consuming. No one likes to sit in congestion for hours every week but they do because their jobs and their families are separated by miles. In the past twenty years, new ideas such as New Urbanism and walkability emerged to change that, which will become evident in the next few decades (see Living Cities below). Second, women in the workplace increased reasons to have home and work closer. In addition, higher energy costs, aging population, and environmental problems influence new urban patterns, as will virtual and augmented reality.
Perhaps most significantly, cities are now seen not just as machines for moving people and produce but as places for living. The Project for Public Spaces looks at how to create engaging public spaces that focuses on distinct places (see diagram). http://www.pps.org/ People seek higher quality, diverse urban experiences and engaged communities.
I consider how looking at whole cities shapes 21st century built environments: the Living Building Challenge and Living Cities.
1. The Living Building
The Living Building Challenge by Jason McLennan pushes the idea of sustainable building beyond energy efficiency; instead, structures or districts generate more energy than they use. They return energy to the grid to be used by others and are measured on six performance areas: Site, Energy, Materials, Water, Indoor Quality, and Beauty and Inspiration. http://bit.ly/3Nd8l2
An earlier model called the triple bottom line also accounts for the quality of life in terms of: people, planet, and prosperity; or sometimes referred to as: social equity, ecology, and economics. http://bit.ly/bR2cX I worked on a 3,000 acre adaptive reuse of a former naval base in North Charleston SC called Noisette with BNIM and Burt Hill architects that used the triple bottom line approach. http://www.noisettesc.com/ The developer, John Knott, went to great effort to incorporate a whole system approach to build a community, not simply bricks and mortar, and subsequently was recognized by ULI and ASLA for urban design excellence. Ecology, heritage, and arts as well as economics drove decisions.
Clearly, the push to consider social equity, wellness, experience, education, social justice, etc in measuring the impact of building choices will reshape future cities. We are beginning to frame questions about cities not in single terms such as congestion or real estate values. Instead, the city is seen as a place of distinct experiences for building communities.
2. Living Cities, New Urbanism, Smart Growth
Larger questions concern the shape of the city. How will peak oil affect cities? How do we attract growth, jobs, and new residents? Do we continue to invest in new infrastructure and abandoning existing districts? Boulder and Portland have zoning regulations to control growth at the perimeter. Brookings Institute is one of the major proponents of contained development, called Smart Growth. http://bit.ly/4yDOGp
A number of models and theories support various cures for industrialized, car-based cities, and clearly I shouldn’t even try to summarize it too briefly. My point is simple (and hopefully not overly simplified): these ideas have certain commonalities and compatibilities, although not always creating precisely the same impact on cities.
The New Urbanist movement promoted the first major concept for post-industrial cities in terms of public spaces, pedestrian-oriented, and mixed uses so that major services were within walking distances. http://bit.ly/fhGhg Related patterns emerged as walkability, density, green cities, compact cities, traffic calming, and even slow cities, which are based on the idea of slow food and a less frenetic pace. http://bit.ly/4hshXh All of them address anti-dotes for industrial cities, and have by and large compatible intentions.
Each concept relates to the idea of the quality of life, the experience of the city, and reconnecting life and cities.
Furthermore, the idea of the agile, resilient city, the adaptable city is emerging. In other words, while modern cities traditionally are planned, infrastructure built, and development begins, new cities may emerge in a more flexible way. Any city that relies chiefly on cars as transportation will continue to be dominated by transportation systems, an extremely costly, rigid form. Similarly, fixed rail system creates a very obdurate infrastructure.
In reverse, if some elements become more transient or mobile, others may become increasingly durable. For instance memorials and cultural institutions may represent the city’s heritage, thus making gps devices even more necessary for wayfinding. Every change creates a counter movement. In this case, some buildings may be assembled, and easily moved, while others may be built to last. (see posts on augmented reality http://bit.ly/1y7rqI.)
Looking Ahead
To create completely new urban shapes, many elements come into play: technology, demographics, sustainability, economics, and attitudes. Furthermore, while these trends address positive actions, cities are also places of decline and sometimes complete societal collapse.
While I previously said I would write about geo-engineering and infrastructure in this post, I saw that to think of those topics comprehensively, whole cities came first. Technology including geo-engineering will be next.
Comments [3]
Last week, I covered a list of 20 items from The Futurist magazine’s Outlook 2010 (Nov-Dec 09 issue http://bit.ly/xFR5C) that will shape 21st c cities. http://bit.ly/154x84 Now I am adding other trends, ideas, and forecasts beyond their list. The first article outlined three comprehensive topics, The Great Urban Divide, Megacities, and Poly-Centric Region http://bit.ly/2CZkcS, and the second one focused on water and cities. http://bit.ly/4Cmu32 This article will cover robotics and cities, which, like water, deserves an entire article.
Extensions of Humans
Marshall McLuhan, renowned for “The media is the message,” also invented the notion of technology as extensions of humans. Every technology extends our bodies or minds. Therefore, the hammer extends our hands, the car extends our legs, and the computer extends our minds.
The robot promises to extend our capacity in continuously surprising ways. Furthermore, robots threaten us because unlike other machines, they act autonomously. Their potential raises significant questions: Will robots someday replace, harm, or even overthrow us?
Sixty years ago, in anticipation of the potential threat, Isaac Asimov created the three laws of robots: 1) They must not harm us. 2) They must obey us, except where they do us harm. 3) They must protect their own existence unless it conflicts with laws 1 or 2. http://bit.ly/3VKhF0 With great foresight, Asimov framed our moral dilemma when robots were still just an idea. Yet his laws have been broken already in the field of military weapons, spurring debate by robot-ethicists. http://bit.ly/HkQLO
These questions become increasingly complex with the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI), also called singularity. http://bit.ly/oxKV1 Ray Kurzweil anticipates that we will see robots with human intelligence in the next few decades. The singularity moment is defined by the Turing test. Can a machine engage in natural conversation? http://bit.ly/xVoh6
As robots invade every aspect of living and working, its definition evolves. The University of Texas Robotics Research Group defines a robot as: "An automatic device that performs functions normally ascribed to humans or a machine in the form of a human." http://bit.ly/3VKhF0 Which begs the question, when is a machine a robot? For example, is a car a robot?
I would make the distinction that a machine becomes a robot when it is able to perform its primary function – such as transportation – without human interaction. For example, the Lexus car that self-parks is operating in that function as a robot car. http://bit.ly/1Xihx6
I consider robots and cities in three areas: construction, mobility, and daily functions.
1. Constructing Cities and Buildings
While cars have been built with robots since the 1980s, retooling manufacturing plants and labor practices has taken three decades. Building cities with robots will even more complex. The first step is constructing buildings as prefabricated mass-produced buildings. Making parts or entire modular sections in a shop or factory lend itself to stationary industrial robots, which has been in practice for decades. http://bit.ly/2kFqGW More interesting are robots that function on site, such as for improving safety. Or for aiding carpenters. http://bit.ly/3AQA2l Small caterpillar-like robots climb tall poles and perform checks, thereby protecting workers from dangerous tasks. http://bit.ly/1FeUGj At some point, I believe that workers will demand robots on-site, just as I imagine that soldiers look to drones as first responders to bomb threats. In the future, robots will build many portions of buildings at construction sites, such as this demonstration model that builds walls. http://bit.ly/11Xyf6
2. Mobility or Where’s My Flying Car?
We have used elevators for over 100 years, and escalators and moving walkways are nothing new. Trains and planes have autopilot functions. Imagine if our cars could be automated at that level, especially without tracks. London Heathrow Airport is building a personal rapid transportation system to open in 2010 with whiz-bang futuristic cabs. http://bit.ly/1BTP6Q The privacy unavailable in public transit or safety problems of private cars is solved with electric zero-carbon system. Completely autonomous vehicles are being tested. http://bit.ly/4APQZN Beyond the self-parking Lexus, the next step for these vehicles is sensing devices that monitor speeds and space cars properly, or stop accidents. Automated highway systems or intelligent highways would work with the cars to control traffic. http://bit.ly/35mQ0T
The Segway promised to revolutionize mobility, a highly over-estimated claim that merely demonstrates the difficulties of transforming transportation. New tech is just the first step; widespread adoption means changing regulations, urban design, and ultimately behaviors. This year, the company teamed with GM to add a Segway car, which promises to raise similar issues. Where do these vehicles belong - with cars, bikes, or pedestrians? http://bit.ly/avzDu It is a beautiful little vehicle that operates more like a golf cart than a car and seemingly would be at home in slower paced districts without congestion to minimize conflicts.
Flying cars already exist, the Moller being the closest to a true example http://bit.ly/22rAXQ. Much like the Segway, they lack a good fit in cities. We have to ask: How do we create order in the air to enable wayfinding and minimize crashes? How do we keep them out of commercial fly zones? Furthermore if you have mechanical failure, you have a crash landing instead of simply a stalled car. The safety and congestion problems of thousands if not millions of personal flying vehicles require far higher technology, training, and attention than we put on automobiles.
Finally, some of the most intriguing mobility devices are in eko-skeleton concepts. Strap them on and traversing a mile becomes a far simpler matter, both faster and easier. http://bit.ly/wuyUb Pedestrian distances to conveniences could be revolutionized by these various robots and transform how we use cities.
Here are a number of robots that we may see in coming decades. http://bit.ly/8jEcx
3. Daily Functions Using Buildings and Cities
You have probably heard of refrigerators that track your food and place grocery orders, or appliances that respond remotely such as digital recordings or coffee machines. Robotic vacuum cleaners (roombas) have been in use for over a decade, and lawn mowing for the past few years. (Today HuffPo imagines these seemingly tame devices may try to kill us. http://bit.ly/4pPWLY - a joke or too close for comfort?) Maintenance technology is expanding to street cleaning with the Scarab, a sort of Wall-E for streets. http://bit.ly/1j2W8Y
Swarming robots the size of a finger nail can carry small solar films and supply power on-demand. http://bit.ly/2DrFn They may sense room comfort, provide light, heat, air flow, or convey images from one space to another. Why go visit the boss when you can send a swarm? Furniture also looks to be smart and flexible, such as modular parts that re-assemble for chairs or tables. http://bit.ly/oWsmf Smart technology which uses reading sensors, codes objects with rfids and can automate our energy grid or transportation system is related automation on a massive scale. Robots and the Internet of Things http://bit.ly/XfDIw will do for cities and buildings what Gameboy did for board games.
Furthermore, how we use buildings and how we assemble and make things can be made easier with robots. Industry is constantly finding new ways to use robots, such as this Gap warehouse. http://bit.ly/19WpHr Cleaning, organizing, maintaining a house will become ever more automated. Robot, read me the headlines now.
Looking Ahead
Robots will immerse our cities with automation and change how we live and work, no doubt, even who we are. For example, I might say I am not a robot, but my arm is, or my eye is. Transhumanism is reshaping how we define machine and human. http://bit.ly/41qWQs We will work with robots, and yes, I think even grow attached to them. Some will emulate humans or animals, and others will be strange forms or geometric shapes suited to some particular task. Robot as a term has been useful as a machine of the future; at some point, we will need far more specific descriptions. Building them, maintaining, updating, using, and teaching robotics are specialized career paths. Eventually, Robots 101 will be a basic course.
You can find more robot references on my delicious site (cindyfw). http://bit.ly/21qCK0
Next I focus on more technology that will shape 21st century cities: geo-engineering and nanotechnology.
photo credit: Hallucigenia Project, IATSS Research 28.1 (2004) by Shunji Yamanaka, Automotive Transportation Gallery, U of California Library, Berkeley
Comments [0]
Last week, I covered a list of 20 items from The Futurist magazine’s Outlook 2010 (Nov-Dec 09 issue http://bit.ly/xFR5C) that will shape 21st c cities.http://bit.ly/w1po5 Now I am adding other trends, ideas, and forecasts beyond their list. The first segment included The Great Urban Divide, Megacities, and Poly-Centric Regions. http://bit.ly/2CZkcS This article covers three ideas involving water and cities.
Dry Mouths, Wet Feet
Water makes a claim on people and cities that is both undeniable and paradoxical. Both people and the planet are largely composed of water, and while we need it to survive, we tend to either be dehydrated or flooded, sometimes simultaneously. In fact, 900 million people are without clean drinking water today with estimates that 1.8 billion will suffer by 2025 and 2/3rds of us will be under severe water stress. http://bit.ly/46PnLY Water scarcity threatens not only the developing world but also parts of the United States in California and in the Colorado and Rio Grande river basins. http://bit.ly/4dEjPa Last year, Atlanta was on the brink of disaster. http://bit.ly/2QJOXW Furthermore, in the US, residential water costs have doubled in the past ten years, even as streets are flooding. It defies common sense.
A brilliant civil engineer told me that if you took the peak waterfall in an area, say 6-12 inches in a day which is an extraordinary amount of rain, and managed to hold it in place for a 24 hour period, you could solve the problems of urban flooding. Imagine a holding place on your property that could handle that run-off, use it for landscape or gray water, and you’ll save your city tremendous problems and lower your water bills as well. http://bit.ly/1bs00F
For buildings, we are concerned with conservation and net zero water buildings (from the excellent Living Building Challenge). http://bit.ly/1axHS9 For cities the problem is more complex. Water is part of the infrastructure for both water in (to drink, irrigate, etc), and water out in the form of sanitary sewers and storm water systems, including many cities which unfortunately combine the two. Where ground water is depleted, subsidence affects many cities dramatically with sink holes increasingly common. http://bit.ly/3Fpqoq Flooding and drought represent two other forms of disaster, witness the devastation of New Orleans and last month found Sydney in a red dust storm. http://bit.ly/htF7h
In short, we have over-engineered and misunderstood the magnitude and significance of water. With dryer, hotter climates and more people, sustainable water management needs to be built into our lives. To nourish 9 billion people, we will be modifying cities and learning new habits. Three exciting ideas may come into play: floating buildings, wave energy, and barriers to rising oceans.
1. Floating Structures
While floating houses have been common for decades if not longer, the thought of floating cities has intrigued designers with few successful installations. The Citadel floats on a polder which is part of the natural tidal plain of the Netherlands. http://bit.ly/w2YSv New Orleans Arcology Habitat (NOAH), a mega-structure city, houses a population of 30,000 people on a pyramid-like form. http://bit.ly/mofah The Lilypad by Vincent Callebaut is specifically planned for climate change disasters and would shelter 50,000 refugees. http://bit.ly/2DR7xZ Smaller scale temporary architecture offers immediate inspiration with this elegant wooden hotel in Helsinki. http://bit.ly/3oCzAJ Far-thinking visions of mid-century architects such as Bucky Fuller and Paolo Soleri are revived in these floating designs.
2. Wave Power
Wave farms could hug the coasts of major cities and supply energy for the massive populations. Numerous proposals consider how to harness tidal waves into electrical power; some are visually elegant. Last year, Portugal opened the first wave farm but it has already been closed. The Sea Snake is an invention of Scottish company Pelamis Wave Power. http://bit.ly/4grUz5 Biowave power is under consideration for the bay of San Francisco. http://bit.ly/2vd1Vi
3. Protecting Coastal Cities
In coming decades, cities will grapple with rising oceans, threats of flooding, and increased storm events. http://bit.ly/17dHjw Beyond emergency planning for storm events, cities must prepare for chronic high water. Change should occur gradually (not like those crazy disaster films) unless the city sits truly below sea level as is the case of New Orleans, which places a city at risk of levee failure. Options include raising the ground elevation, allowing submergence by waterproofing such as a pool or submarine, abandoning facilities, floating as in item 1, or barricading between sea and city. Most would prefer the last option because it represents maintaining normal life except at the perimeter. Consequently, an era of expensive, elaborate sea walls, dykes, levees, seagates, and so on is coming. The Rising Tide competition to save San Francisco from higher oceans illustrates the need for adaptation, invention, and resiliency. http://bit.ly/3um1Ta For Chicago, UrbanLab invented the eco-boulevard to grow water resources in a closed loop system. http://bit.ly/2yZIKi
Looking Ahead
Water represents so many possibilities and problems as we aim to use it, but not drowned in it, and leave it for next generations. We have seen water problems emerging since the Great Depression and they continue to spread and multiply. Amazing inventions have accomplished huge steps forward yet we have not solved anything entirely. Sustainable water management and net zero water exist today; therefore I placed them in my descriptions of the present conditions, not in the future. Yet most places have not adopted these practices and we remain at the mercy of poor, aging infrastructure.
As it’s said: the future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed. (William Gibson)
Next I focus on two high tech areas that will shape 21st century cities: robotics and geo-engineering.
Comments [3]
The past two days, I covered a list of 20 items from The Futurist magazine’s “Outlook 2010” (Nov-Dec 09 issue http://bit.ly/xFR5C) that will shape 21st c cities. http://bit.ly/w1po5 Now I am adding other trends, ideas, and forecasts beyond their list. First, a bit of context.
The Urban Century
As of 2007, more of us live in cities than not, which is an historic first. Furthermore, during the next four decades, the world population is predicted to add 3 billion more people and nearly all of that growth will be in cities. http://bit.ly/4DMSUD
In other words, during the past 10,000 years of civilization, we grew to the point that 3 billion people live in cities. Now we will add that many again by 2058.
Think about it: Are our cities prepared to deal with doubling size in the next forty years?
Cities In Crisis and Opportunity
Urban change will not be entirely incremental, just more and more of the same; cities will fundamentally transform, in many parts beyond recognition.
The reason I say this with such sureness is by looking backward. To see what lies ahead, futurists become great students of history. We look backward in order to see forward. If you look at 1950, cities are nearly unrecognizable. And 1900, even moreso.
A Very Brief and Recent History
When forecasting, I think about time in blocks or at particular milestones.
1. The Great Urban Divide
Growth in Asian cities is exploding. Mumbai, Delhi, Shanghai, Calcutta, and Jakarta lead the world through a combination of rural-urban migration and population increases (not true for China of course that has low fertility rate). http://bit.ly/1Fabe9 Each country has its own problems. While China has organized massive long-term development plans, they build sub-standard buildings http://bit.ly/3cBtnB and their cities’ air is the most polluted in the world. http://bit.ly/15i1cj. India struggles with squatters villages, infrastructure, transportation, education, and jobs.
Cities in developing countries grow at a rapid clip of 3 percent annually – yes, those cities will gain the lion’s share of the next 3 billion people -- while developed countries that have long been urbanized are maintaining existing population. Therefore, developing countries’ concerns are with massive amounts of new infrastructure, institutions and services while developed countries are repairing, renovating, and re-inventing. The Great Urban Divide looks to continue until the world population balances in mid- 21st century.
2. The Rise of Megacities
Defined as cities with populations over 10 million people, 20-25 mega-cities will exist by 2015 (depending on how you define the circumference). http://bit.ly/16E5JR While 6.9% lived in mega-cities in 1990, over 12% will be in the 23 largest cities by 2015. That represents an increase urban population from 98 million to 378 million people.
Imagine, in this 25-year period, 23 cities are adding 12 million new people each! Just the housing and infrastructure required is mind- boggling, much less jobs, education, health care, banks, shops, and so on. Look at your city and think about that magnitude of change.
Moreover, almost all of that growth is occurring not in Toyko, New York, or London, but in India, China, and Indonesia. Even mega-cities are experiencing an urban divide. There are two forms: those more or less built by now, and those that are still building. They have one thing in common: all are scrambling for resources.
3. Polycentric Cities
While developing countries are squeezing enormous numbers of people into incredibly dense megacities, developed countries are sprawling and eventually converging in what Sir Peter Hall dubbed the polyopolis, or poly-centric regions. http://bit.ly/3M3Pvk The distinction between mega-cities and poly-centric cities is due to transportation and historic growth. Polycentric regions emerge with multiple cities and urban cores, linked by networks in economically beneficial collaborations. Hall identified eight European areas as mega-city regions and three or four in North America.
Polycentric regions tend to be areas of highly developed technology and with historic social and political patterns. The problems are split governance and enabling a division of resources. In effect, with regional relationships paramount yet without centralized government, a new field of urban diplomacy and legal negotiations is emerging.
Looking Ahead
While it may seem like this tale of divided problems means we don’t need to worry about urban troubles half way around the globe, that is folly. Two things are shared and deeply linked: the environment and the world economy. Collaboration, risk, opportunity all converge.
No one has yet to build the perfect city. We can learn from each other.
Next I focus on some technological ventures: floating cities, robotics, and geo-engineering.
Comments [0]
Yesterday, I posted ten trends from The Futurist magazine Outlook 2010, http://bit.ly/xFR5C which I selected from approximately 80 topics and modified them to apply to cities. The trends were organized into ten domains. I covered five of them in Part I: Environmental, Government, Habitats, Health and Medicine, and Information Society. http://bit.ly/w1po5
Today, I look at the other four domains. (One area in Outlook 2010, “Business”, didn’t cover any issues with distinct implications for cities, as strange as that may seem.)
Lifting ideas from The Futurists’ prognostications and modifying them for 21st century communities, here are ten forecasts that will shape cities. I added comments in italics.
Lifestyles and Values
1. Transit Oriented Cities. While 7 out of 8 Americans own cars today, only two-thirds will own cars in coming decades. We already see car sharing http://bit.ly/2gUsnk, more bikes and a strong push for public transit. The biggest change over time will be in denser, mixed used communities, based on infill and adaptive reuse to retrofit areas and for new developments.
2. Active Older Population. The oldest segment, Centenarians, is also the fastest growing and will double. Furthermore, this group along with people over 70 is healthier, more active and has more resources. They will demand buildings and public spaces that accommodate older bodies and activities and experiences that cater to their needs.
3. Virtual Reality as Testing Platform. While The Futurist listed VR as an area to expand research on ethics and moral dilemmas, I think that that we will also see the AEC professions, government agencies and private developers test development ideas via virtual environments. Primitive technology at this time, it may soon be a mandatory means of sharing development plans. Design professionals always wanted more public participation – be careful what you wish for! It could be a tidal wave.
Science and Technology
4. Brain-to-Brain Telepathy. Or brain-to-thing messages. For example, we can think our house warm, lights on, windows closed, or oven cooking. Particularly useful for people with health problems such as dementia or physical disabilities. http://bit.ly/4uVs39 The twitter house experiment demonstrates the possibilities. http://bit.ly/dFIaW
5. 3D Prototype Printing. These printers which are now used for fabricating manufactured parts and making architectural models will enable people to print objects ranging from building parts to containers to furniture. http://bit.ly/8p5zs Distribution, shopping patterns and object design will change as a result.
Work and Careers
6. Growing Workforce; Shrinking Talent Pool. Financial concerns and healthy aging may add to the workforce with delayed or partial retirement. Yet a shortage of technology workers is looming. Workplaces would need to accommodate an older workforce, and public transit and nearby services become even more important. A countertrend is increased robotics which could reduce available jobs. Furthermore, education needs a full re-vamping, integrated into all levels of activity from personal finance to upgrading our employment potential. http://bit.ly/4fGV4D
7. Terrorism Thwarted. Jihadist rehabilitations programs sponsored by Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and others may shrink global terrorism. To me, that sounds as amazing as a cure for cancer! However, perceived problems can still change behavior and people may seek protection with gated communities, secure buildings, and fortified corporate and government facilities.
8. China Largest Economy by 2025. China will shift to consumer driven while the US slips from the top 20 countries in GDP per capita. In addition to being a location for possible development projects, China will exert cultural influence in design, innovation, and education that will influence cities and architecture globally.
World Affairs
9. Post-Peak Oil Era. While developed countries will shift to alternative energy sources, nations such as Saudi Arabia will be faced with high unemployment, increased poverty, and slums. These countries may become more open or more insular.
10. Information Warfare. Security of infrastructure from energy to transportation will become increasingly troublesome. We may find centralized solutions and ubiquitous rfid “smart” technologies can create too many weaknesses. In fact, data security could cause more “off-grid” behavior unless absolutely necessary, which would change internet dependent entertainment, communications, education, and work habits. A walk in the park may find a new generation of enthusiasts.
Adding yesterday’s list, that’s twenty images of the future that will change the way we use and build cities:
Colorful Solar Energy Transit Oriented Cities
Flooded Coastal Cities Active Older Population
Local Fragmentation Virtual Reality as Testing Platform
China’s Ascent Brain-to-Brain Telepathy
Healthy Cities 3D Prototype Printing
Car-Free Cities Growing Workforce; Shrinking Talent Pool
Suburban Woes Terrorism Thwarted
Sensors and Nano-technology China Largest Economy by 2025
Augmented Reality Post Peak Oil Era
Telecommuting Information Warfare
However, the list is far from complete in defining tomorrow's cities -- not that The Futurist made any bones about it being a comprehensive survey, and they did not focus on cities in particular.
In fact, the lack of attention to the built environment struck me as a complete oversight, and inspired me to write these two articles. Cities are ascending, we are an urbanized planet for the first time in history. Surely that deserves our attention in 2010.
What’s missing? Off the top of my head: megacities, slums, robotics, geo-engineering, smart infrastructure, diffused energy sources, tribal communities, prefabrication, nanotech, and urban farming, just to name a few.
Many other critical trends will shape 21st century cities, which warrants another post - big ideas looming outside the scope of Outlook 2010.
In the meantime, what do you think of the 20 trends from The Futurist? Are any more critical, exciting, or terrifying? And what do you think might be missing?
Image: Buckminster Fuller: Dome over Manhattan, 1960, Department of Special Collections, Stanford University Libraries, Estate of R. Buckminster Fuller
Comments [2]
The Futurist magazine http://www.wfs.org/futurist.htm published their “Outlook 2010” this month with forecasts in ten domains. Somehow none of the areas focus exclusively on cities or architecture, despite the fact that the world for the first time in history is now more urban than rural.
In fact, I would call this the urban century. One of the most critical issues we are facing is how to live in and create great cities.
No doubt, historically there are times when cities were truly spectacular – Athens, Rome, Rome again, Florence to name a few. They pulsed with culture, commerce, and a sense of community.
Then technology aided industrialization and automobiles, and now globalization and social networking. Cities are simply more complicated now. Actually that’s true about life all the way around.
Yet, even now, sometimes we build something brilliant. New York City’s Central Park, the Eiffel Tower in Paris, Sydney Opera House, Beijing Olympics. At a particular moment, communities create genius in built form. Even with all the forces that tear us in multiple directions, it’s possible.
Lifting ideas from The Futurists’ prognostications and modifying them for 21st century communities, here are ten forecasts that will shape cities. I added comments in italics.
Environmental
1. Colorful Solar Energy: MIT devised thin solar film that amounts to paint so translucent it can do double-duty as tinted windows.
2. Flooded Coastal Cities: If we see 14 degrees centigrade warming, the oceans would rise 75 meters, which puts every coastal city at risk. Actually, I would modify this to far lower figures, say 2-6 meters, based on research, but still with devastating possibilities. http://bit.ly/2ZeePC Heavier storm patterns will also increase damage, including risks to river cities.
Government
3. Local Fragmentation. Local governments will exert more influence than national governments. Brookings Institute notes that fragmented metropolitan regions with multiple small municipalities damage the area’s ability to collaborate and attract jobs. http://bit.ly/bTdl6
4. China’s Ascent. China, maybe Russia, will join the US as leading world powers by 2025. As the EU gains a unified voice, it will become a member of this group.
Habitats
5. Healthy Cities. Cliff Moughtin, Urban Design, cites urban gardens and walkability as improvements to quality of life. Example: Freiburg, Germany. http://bit.ly/3TaRFE I would add the slow city http://bit.ly/4hshXh and new urbanist movements.
6. Car-Free Cities. Electronic sensors in Singapore charge cars as they enter the city. Paris aims to cut auto traffic by 40% by 2020, replaced with bikes.
7. Suburban Woes. As energy costs soar, districts with spread-out services will spend more in transportation. That is, unless they build public transit and infill to create density, and address problems of aging infrastructure and next-generation residents as urban cores have learned.
Health and Medicine
8. Sensors and Nano-technology. Health monitoring and even minor diagnosis and procedures will be done virtually, placing an additional duty on houses, especially bathrooms and kitchens. Furthermore, hospitals will be modified accordingly, shrinking examination rooms and beds while adding clinics.
Information Society
9. Augmented Reality. Sensors, digital maps, and real-time data combine with social media to enrich our experience of cities. http://bit.ly/1y7rqI
10. Telecommuting. US jobs filled by telecommuters could increase four-fold to 19 million by 2012. That many folks may have partial telecommuting in two years. Reduced road infrastructure could save $5 billion and we’d recapture 1.5 billion commute hours. Changes to cities without rush-hour commuting would be enormous. Residences become base-camps for work and living, and neighborhoods – urban or suburban - become 24/7 communities.
That’s ten changes that apply to cities from the first five areas that The Futurist covered. They had many other points under these headings; I selected based on relevancy to cities.
Tomorrow I will add items from the second portion of their 2010 forecast. That post will cover: Lifestyles and Values, Science and Technology, Work and Careers, and World Affairs. http://bit.ly/1oLozQ
And looking at the list – where are robotics, geo-engineering, smart infrastructure, diffused energy, public space, public art, sacred places, tribal communities, local/global connections, prefabrication, mega-cities, slums, security issues, and urban farming to name a few?
Really, how could 21st century communities not be at the top of their list??
Comments [0]
One of the best tools in the futurist’s bag is the visual timeline. Here is one of my favorite by Peter von Stackelberg at Social Technologies http://www.socialtechnologies.com/, a futurist consultancy based in Washington DC. Peter started this project as a student at the University of Houston in 1989 and continues to build on it. http://bit.ly/2QKt8H
A Timeline of Major Trends and Events
In this amazing diagram, Peter tracked major events, trends and cycles from an American perspective, starting in 1750 and then projected to 2100. What’s more, his analysis spanned all five STEEP domains. STEEP is an acronym for Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, and Political areas which is used for environmental scanning research. While futurists tend to prefer using a range of probable futures, Peter essentially gives a single future view. The complexity of the data justifies this approach, and viewers just need to take that parameter into account.
Peter began with two sets of cycles shown under Economic trends:
1. The Kondratieff Cycle http://bit.ly/ar0U6 idealized as a K-Wave that considers four distinct periods: early advance (E.D.) growth, late advance (L.A.) conservation, early decline (E.D) recession or collapse, late decline (L.D.) reorganization. Then the cycle begins again.
2. Schumpeter’s theory of creative destruction http://bit.ly/ZeYXn, illustrates an S-curve for major technological breakthroughs, or lead technologies. Most recently, Peter indicates eras of steel, then petroleum and now information and projects the next era as biotech.
Uniquely, the complexity of this data over time and topics gives a rich picture of possible futures. Any one of these areas might be somewhat different and change the future substantially.
What’s It Mean for Cities and Architecture?
For future cities and architecture, a number of ideas catch my attention:
1. While worldwide oil production is said to decline from 2010 to 2025, a positive economic cycle is projected. The only reason I can imagine that is if new technologies and areas of production – and not just biotech – emerge. One possible area is green tech, another is social tech, and a third is productivity among developing nations. All three would have positive results for cities.
2. Superfast Trains such as mag-lev are shown on an S-curve that is just beginning a growth cycle. I cannot tell you how excited I would be to see a train culture emerge globally. If it is a mere third of the transportation pie, I think our quality of life and environmental consequences would be immeasurably improved, especially if another third of transit used personal transportation such as walking, bikes, and other intimate devices.
3. Smaller households from aging and delayed parenting would create a need for more housing but not necessarily a demand for more space. One trend in the past fifteen years that can stand a reversal is the average size of houses, luckily already showing a decrease during the current recession. http://bit.ly/13E1Wz
4. We continue to project growth in the US, which in turn makes the economy grow. However, that growth is based on immigration which is based on being a desirable place to live with jobs, education, and opportunity – in short, the American Dream. Keeping that dream alive should be a national priority, not just for the US, but for every country. I think it has been a defining element of the past fifty years, a culture of optimism. However, on this chart, several risks emerge: end of oil, increased social and civil unrest, global population explosion, and American involvement in a war. Each of these cycles could cause major difficulties that require preparation.
What’s Missing?
This timeline uses cycles, which are external forces from specific systems and represent a structural or contextual change.
The actual experience combines external large forces with the actions of individuals, groups, organizations, and nations, our intentions and innovations. By understanding grand patterns, we can look at the best and worst for various scenarios.
Preferred scenarios become visions, images of the future, that shape the decisions and choices we make today.
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” Alan Kay
Comments [1]
Comments [0]